According to CNBC, the S&P 500 is showing signs there may not be a Santa Claus rally this year, undermining the typical late-December seasonal tailwind for equities. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the Santa Claus rally spans the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, and a negative outcome in this seven-session window is historically viewed as a cautionary signal for near-term market strength. According to Kaiko Research, BTC’s correlation with U.S. equities tends to rise during risk-off episodes, making equity weakness into year-end an important signal for crypto risk sentiment and momentum positioning.

According to CNBC, its Daily Open asks whether December will end the year with gains, prompting traders to focus on year-end positioning and seasonality drivers that can influence cross-asset risk appetite (source: CNBC). Historically, the Santa Claus Rally — the last five trading days of December and first two of January — has produced an average S&P 500 gain of about 1.3% since 1950, a seasonal tailwind closely tracked by equity and crypto traders (source: Stock Trader's Almanac). Crypto and equities have shown episodes of positive correlation around macro catalysts, making December equity momentum a key context for near-term BTC and ETH direction and liquidity (source: Kaiko Research). Traders can monitor risk gauges such as the VIX for equity volatility and the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index alongside crypto spot and derivatives flows to calibrate exposure into year-end (source: Cboe Global Markets; source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago).

According to @KobeissiLetter, since 1928 the S&P 500 has finished December higher 73.2% of the time, the highest win rate of any month, with only 26 of the last 97 Decembers closing negative (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 30, 2025). For trading context, crypto desks track this equity seasonality because studies documented time‑varying positive BTC–US equity correlations in the 2020–2023 period, making year‑end risk conditions in stocks a relevant input for BTC and ETH exposure sizing (source: Coin Metrics State of the Network research; Bank for International Settlements research on rising crypto–equity co‑movement).

According to @CNBC, the outlet highlights a list of stocks that have historically posted strong December performance, framing them as proven seasonal winners based on past market data for the month of December, which is relevant for year-end rally strategies in equities, source @CNBC. According to @CNBC, the social post links to the full report but does not disclose specific tickers or metrics in the post itself, so traders should consult the source article for details such as win rate, average return, lookback window, and sector breakdown before positioning, source @CNBC. According to @CNBC, while equity seasonality can inform risk-on positioning that crypto traders watch, the post itself provides no cross-asset statistics to quantify spillover to digital assets like BTC or ETH, so no direct crypto-market impact can be inferred from the post alone, source @CNBC.